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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."