🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.